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Central Economic Work Conference: Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, reduce the RRR and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain sufficient liquidity, and match the scale of social financing and the growth of money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level. Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, innovate financial instruments, and maintain the stability of the financial market.Spot gold fell 1% to $2,690.81. COMEX silver futures fell 1.5% in the day to $32.47 per ounce.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

After the European Central Bank moderately cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the EUR/GBP remained below 0.8250.Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.Macron said that it opposed the free trade agreement reached between the EU and MERCOSUR. On December 12th, local time, French President Macron, who was visiting Poland, said that he disagreed with the free trade agreement reached between the EU and MERCOSUR. Macron said that the impact of the agreement on the agricultural market caused widespread concern, and France would not sacrifice its agricultural sovereignty. On the same day, Macron also said that Europe must strengthen its investment in security, build a European defense base and reduce its strategic dependence on the outside world. The EU and MERCOSUR reached a trade agreement on December 6th. The Southern Common Market was established in 1991. At present, its members are Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, of which the first four are founding members. The vast majority of goods among member countries are free to trade without tariffs, and a unified foreign tariff policy is implemented. It is understood that the trade agreement needs to be approved by at least 15 of the 27 EU member States, and it needs to be voted by the European Parliament before it can be approved. France, Poland and Italy opposed the agreement. (CCTV News)

Germany's current account surplus in October was 12.497 billion euros.Market News: Japan and the United States are looking for technologies to counter the threats of biology and misinformation.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Regardless of the market pricing of interest rate hikes, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the European Central Bank will adjust its policies according to the data and will decide the policies of each meeting one by one. The neutral interest rate cannot be accurately determined without considering the market pricing of interest rate hikes.